Football's Fine Fall Forecast
 | | Junior running back Laurence Maroney. Photo courtesy of University Athletics. |
By Chris Coughlan-Smith
The Gopher football roller coaster looks ready to climb again in 2005. The same pieces that saw Minnesota exceed all expectations in winning 10 games in 2003 but limp to the finish in a disappointing 2004 season are in place again: A high-powered offense and a defense with something to prove. With its talent, perhaps the best in head coach Glen Mason's nine years, Minnesota should have a fourth consecutive winning season and return to a bowl game for the sixth time in seven years.
That this has become routine-that a 7-4 record and a bowl win in 2004 was a disappointment-shows the emergence of Minnesota as a winning program and the higher expectations that creates. The Gophers are 25-13 over the past three years with three bowl victories, after having only 10 winning seasons in the preceding 33 years. But making the leap to Big Ten title contender has proved a tougher task. For 2005, most prognosticators put Minnesota near the top of a five-team pile behind Big Ten favorites Michigan, Ohio State, and Iowa, and some preseason polls predict a top-25 finish for the maroon and gold. With three potential national title contenders and five other teams in the hunt for upper-division conference finishes, the margin for error is small. A few good breaks and Minnesota could crack the Big Ten's big three for the first time in two decades. A few bad mistakes, however, could send Minnesota to a losing conference record.
Mason, for one, is confident. “We've been to three bowl games in three years and won all three and have come within the blink of an eye of winning it all,” he says, referring to a few heartbreaking losses that deflated Rose Bowl talk in 2003. “We've got a lot of guys who have played a lot of football for us and who have invested a lot in this program. The attitude is really good. Why wouldn't you have confidence?”
Reason for optimism
There is no better offensive line in the Big Ten than Minnesota's. Seniors Greg Eslinger and Mark Setterstrom are “as good as anyone in the country at their positions,” Mason says. The line is experienced and versatile-in addition to blocking for the Big Ten's best running offense in 2004, Minnesota's is the only Big Ten line that has given up fewer than 20 sacks in each of the past three seasons.
The running game will drive the offense once again. Junior running back Laurence Maroney has shifty moves and an amazing burst of speed when he hits the open field. Despite sharing the rushing duties last year, he was named first-team all-Big Ten. If he can stand up to an increase in carries, Maroney could garner national acclaim. Sophomore fullback Justin Valentine runs with power as a change of pace to Maroney's fluid style. Two talented sophomores are ready if either should falter this year.
The passing game showed moments of brilliance in 2004, along with lengthy stretches of ineffectiveness. Junior Bryan Cupito was thrust into the starting role with no real reserve behind him in 2004. He showed  | | Junior quarterback Bryan Cupito. |
excellent touch and precision on his throws at times, but at other moments appeared to struggle with his confidence, completing fewer than half his passes for the season. He will benefit not only from a year of experience, but from throwing to the same receivers he had last year. Senior Jared Ellerson has the speed to break a long touchdown on any play. He improved his blocking last year but must work on short timing routes to keep defenders from cheating against the long bomb. Tall and speedy freshman phenom Ernie Wheelright averaged more than 20 yards per catch and made several leaping grabs over defenders. But he also dropped passes in critical situations. A coaching change and an emphasis on consistency and fundamentals in practice should pay off for both. Experienced backups, versatile tight ends, and running backs who can catch screen passes will give Minnesota a more balanced passing game.
In the kicking slot-a big question mark at the beginning of spring practice-it appears that redshirt freshman Jason Giannini has the ability to continue Minnesota's run of excellent kickers.
Stopping the pass
Minnesota graduated its best pass-rushing lineman and two strong defensive backs from a team that was last in the Big Ten against the pass in 2004. Position changes to get bigger players at linebacker and safety might help, but until the Gophers show they can stop the pass, especially in crucial situations, teams will continue to throw against Minnesota. Against Michigan in 2004, it took the Wolverines just 67 seconds to travel 87 yards on six consecutive pass completions to score the winning touchdown. The next week Michigan State ran up 51 points in a rout that ended Minnesota's conference title hopes.
But even here there is reason for optimism. Mason has redshirt freshmen and several highly regarded recruits ready to join the already lively competition for starting spots. And, in winning the Music City Bowl over Alabama, a revamped, simplified defense did not allow a single third-down conversion. The progress continued in spring practice. “I saw 14 good spring practices [for the defense],” Mason says. “I see marked improvement in our defense. You won't see much departure from what we did in the Alabama game.”
The nonconference schedule should offer a 3-0 start, but the Big Ten slate is tough from start to finish. The homecoming game against Purdue on September 24 will speak volumes about the season; both teams are expected to be among those fighting for spots in the top half of the Big Ten. Minnesota then goes on to play the three teams ranked at the top of the conference.
Still, Mason is confident. “We've had a good attitude around here for the past couple of years,” he says. “We've made good things happen. We've come close to making something great happen.”
The pieces are in place for another winning year in 2005. That Minnesota has a chance to make something great happen despite a tough schedule shows how far the Gopher program has come.
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